Will the budget be balanced and the country get out of debt anytime soon?

Let us suppose that the government could reduce the budget deficit to zero. This would mean cutting not just $1.5 Trillion over ten years…but $12 Trillion over the same time period. And suppose we could pay $100M per day…every day…to reduce our debt.
How long would it take to reduce it to zero?  Answer:  over 404 years.
But wait…that assumes a zero interest rate. Presently 10 year treasury bills yield about 2%. If you assume that rate is constant over the next 400+ years, you will have to pay $295B per year in interest over the first years…and since $100M per day only produces $36.5B annually, you can’t get there. $100M per day actually grows the debt over $250B per year in the first years.
So, let’s change the amount and say you could pay $1B per day. That produces $365B per year and pays the interest of $295B and a small reduction in the debt. But…average interest rate on 10 year treasuries over a long period of time is more like 5%. If you assume a 5% rate, you need $738B per year in interest payments alone…and $1B per day allows the debt to continue to grow $370B+ per year in the first years.
Bottom line – given the size of our national debt, if interest rates ever get back to “normal,” it would take $2.21 B every day to reduce the debt to zero over 50 years. Remember, this assumes Congress and the Administration can first find $12 Trillion in cuts to government spending to balance the budget over the next 10 years.

Sorry, comments are closed for this post.